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Dr. Vittoria Colizza is Research Scientist at the Complex Networks and Systems Group at the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI Foundation) in Turin, Italy.. Dr. Alessandro Vespignani is the Rudy Professor of Informatics and Cognitive Sciences, and coordinator of the Complex Systems Group at the Indiana University School of Informatics. Their research activity focuses on the interdisciplinary application of statistical and numerical simulation methods in the analysis and visualization of epidemic and spreading phenomena. Recently, they developed a stochastic large-scale spatial-transmission model for the analysis of the global spreading of emerging infectious diseases.

Description of Unique Features: Detailed knowledge of the worldwide population distribution to the resolution scale of ¼° and of the movement patterns of individuals by air travel is explicitly incorporated into the model to describe the spatio-temporal evolution of epidemics in our highly interconnected and globalized world. Simulation results can be used to identify the main mechanisms behind observed propagation patterns, e.g., the patched and heterogeneous spreading of the SARS outbreak in 2002-2003, and to provide forecasts for future emerging infectious diseases, e.g., a newly emerging pandemic influenza. Maps showing different simulated scenarios of possible epidemics might be of crucial help in the identification, design, and implementation of appropriate intervention strategies aimed at possible containment.

We would like to thank A. Barrat and M. Barthelemy for model development and data analysis, A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy and A.-J. Valleron for study design, J.J. Ramasco and D. Balcan for data collection and analysis, and K. Borner for discussion and useful comments.

Citation Reference: 1) V. Colizza, A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy, A. Vespignani. The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 103, 2015 (2006).

2) V. Colizza, A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy, A. Vespignani. The modeling of global epidemics: stochastic dynamics and predictability. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 68, 1893 (2006).

3) V. Colizza, A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy, A.-J. Valleron, A. Vespignani. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Medicine 4(1): e13 (2007).